Washington, D.C., USA: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.
This compares with economists consensus expectation of 4.2% growth.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 4.2 percent. With this third estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; a downward revision to private inventory investment was offset by small upward revisions to most other GDP components. Imports which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down slightly.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.1 percent in the first quarter (table 1).
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports decreased (table 2).
The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter reflected accelerations in PCE, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, as well as a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in private inventory investment and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports decreased after increasing in the first quarter.
Current-dollar GDP increased 7.6 percent, or $370.9 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $20.41 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.3 percent, or $209.2 billion (table 1 and table 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.4 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.0 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent.
Updates to GDP
The percent change in real GDP was unrevised from the second estimate, reflecting a downward revision to private inventory investment that was offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending, PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and residential fixed investment. Imports were revised down slightly.
GDP q/q primer
Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”
Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.
The gross domestic purchases price index measures the prices of final goods and services purchased by U.S. residents.
The personal consumption expenditure price index measures the prices paid for the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons.”
Profits from current production, referred to as corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj) in the NIPAs, is a measure of the net income of corporations before deducting income taxes that is consistent with the value of goods and services measured in GDP.
The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in the national income and product accounts. Profits for domestic industries reflect profits for all corporations located within the within the geographic borders of the United States.
The rest-of-the-world (ROW) component of profits is measured as the difference between profits received from ROW and profits paid to ROW.
Gross domestic product (GDP)
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.
Gross domestic income (GDI)
Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP. In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. In practice, GDP and GDI differ because they are constructed using largely independent source data. Real GDI is calculated by deflating gross domestic income using the GDP price index as the deflator, and is therefore conceptually equivalent to real GDP.
Why Markets Care About GDP q/q
GDP quarterly change (GDP q/q) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
It is released quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department about 85 days after the quarter ends
The usual effect is that is ‘Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’, the report is considered good for the dollar and vice versa.
While this is q/q data, it’s reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
BEA releases three vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP: “Advance” estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) q/q is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health.