Washington, D.C., USA: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent (vs 3.4 percent expected) in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, state and local government spending, federal government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter reflected a downturn in exports and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased in the third quarter after decreasing in the second. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment.
Current dollar GDP increased 4.9 percent, or $247.1 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $20.66 trillion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 7.6 percent, or $370.9 billion.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the second quarter. The PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.
Current-dollar personal income increased $180.4 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $180.7 billion in the second quarter. Accelerations in rental income, wages and salaries, and nonfarm proprietors’ income were offset by a downturn in farm proprietors’ income and a slowdown in dividend income.
Disposable personal income increased $155.0 billion, or 4.1 percent, in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $168.9 billion, or 4.5 percent, in the second quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 2.5 percent, the same increase as in the second quarter.
Personal saving was $999.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with $1,054.3 billion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 6.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with 6.8 percent in the second quarter.
GDP q/q primer
Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”
Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.
The gross domestic purchases price index measures the prices of final goods and services purchased by U.S. residents.
The personal consumption expenditure price index measures the prices paid for the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons.”
Profits from current production, referred to as corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj) in the NIPAs, is a measure of the net income of corporations before deducting income taxes that is consistent with the value of goods and services measured in GDP.
The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in the national income and product accounts. Profits for domestic industries reflect profits for all corporations located within the within the geographic borders of the United States.
The rest-of-the-world (ROW) component of profits is measured as the difference between profits received from ROW and profits paid to ROW.
Gross domestic product (GDP)
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.
Gross domestic income (GDI)
Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP. In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. In practice, GDP and GDI differ because they are constructed using largely independent source data. Real GDI is calculated by deflating gross domestic income using the GDP price index as the deflator, and is therefore conceptually equivalent to real GDP.
Why Markets Care About GDP q/q
GDP quarterly change (GDP q/q) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
It is released quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department about 85 days after the quarter ends
The usual effect is that is ‘Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’, the report is considered good for the dollar and vice versa.
While this is q/q data, it’s reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
BEA releases three vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP: “Advance” estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) q/q is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health.