Washington, DC, USA: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 312,000 in December, easily topping all forecasts, after an upwardly revised 176,000 gain the prior month, a Labor Department report showed Friday. Average hourly earnings rose 3.2 percent from a year earlier, more than projected and matching the fastest pace since 2009. Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose from a five-decade low to 3.9 percent, reflecting more people actively seeking work.
U.S. employers added the most workers in 10 months as wage gains accelerated and labor-force participation jumped, reflecting a robust job market that nevertheless faces mounting risks in 2019.
The hiring and wage gains will support consumer spending and offer some respite after a spate of weak economic data and cuts in corporate revenue forecasts fueled stock-market jitters. Still, it may be hard to replicate such labor-market strength in 2019 amid the U.S.-China tariff war, softening manufacturing, a housing slowdown and a projected cooling in global growth.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak later Friday morning in Atlanta. While the report is in line with the Fed’s view of a healthy job market and officials last month penciled in two interest-rate hikes for 2019, the central bank may need more evidence of strength before moving forward with the next increase following four in 2018.
Before Friday’s report, investors had begun betting that policy makers will instead end up cutting borrowing costs.
The figures brought the 2018 payrolls gain to 2.64 million. Economists expect the pace of gains will ease this year, consistent with their forecasts that gross domestic product growth will moderate amid the trade war and a fading boost from the Trump administration’s tax cuts.
The labor strength spanned most industries, including the biggest gain in construction since February, and the most manufacturing jobs added in a year. Private service providers boosted payrolls by 227,000, the most in more than a year, amid gains in education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and retail.
While the unemployment rate increased to a five-month high, it may not be much of a concern because the participation rate rose to 63.1 percent — the highest since September 2017 — from 62.9 percent. The jobless rate remains well below the level that central bankers consider sustainable in the long run.
Average hourly earnings for all private workers rose 0.4 percent from the prior month following a 0.2 percent gain, the report showed. The annual increase followed a 3.1 percent advance.
Another measure, average hourly earnings for production and non- supervisory workers, increased 3.3 percent from a year earlier.
While worker pay has risen very gradually during most of the economic expansion, companies have been competing more vigorously in recent months to attract and retain workers.
Private payrolls rose by 301,000, well above the median estimate of 185,000. Government payrolls increased by 11,000.
The employment-population ratio, another broad gauge of labor-market health, was unchanged at 60.6 percent.
The average workweek increased to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours in the prior month; a shorter workweek has the effect of boosting average hourly pay.
The U-6, or underemployment rate, was unchanged at 7.6 percent. This measure includes part-time workers who want a full-time job and people who are less active in seeking work.
In annual revisions to data based on the household survey, the unemployment rate for October was increased to 3.8 percent from 3.7 percent.
Labor Department economic releases are proceeding as scheduled, as the agency isn’t part of the partial federal- government shutdown.
Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Report
The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report is released on the first Friday of every month at 8:30 AM ET (Eastern Time) by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. NFP is a highly anticipated economic report which signals the strength of the US economy. It reveals the health of the jobs market, which filters down into inflation
It is closely analysed to predict Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and inflation rates and has the power to move global financial markets.
Economic indicators in the NFP report that markets and policy makers care about the most are Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate:
Non-Farm Employment Change
Non-Farm Employment Change measures change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity
Average Hourly Earnings
The wages growth data, Average Hourly Earnings, measures change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;
Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.
Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy, especially the Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC.