Washington, DC, USA: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor, in it’s Economic Daily, reported today, Monday, October 30, that the thirty fastest growing occupations are projected to account for 19 percent of new jobs from 2016 to 2026. From 2016 to 2026, employment is projected to increase by 11.5 million, or 7.4 percent. Employment in the 30 fastest growing occupations is projected to increase by 2.2 million, accounting for 19 percent of all new jobs.
The occupation solar photovoltaic installers is projected to add 11,900 new jobs, or an increase of 105.3 percent, largest among all occupations. Solar Photovoltaic Installers assemble, install, or maintain solar photovoltaic (PV) systems on roofs or other structures in compliance with site assessment and schematics. May include measuring, cutting, assembling, and bolting structural framing and solar modules. May perform minor electrical work such as current checks. Excludes solar thermal installers who are included in “Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters” (47-2152). Excludes solar PV electricians who are included in “Electricians” (47-2111).
Following solar photovoltaic installers, employment among wind turbine service technicians is expected to grow by 5,500 over the 2016–26 period, an increase of 96.1 percent. Combined, home health aides and personal care aides are projected to add 1.2 million jobs, for growth rates of 46.7 percent and 37.4 percent, respectively. Overall, health care industries and their associated occupations are expected to account for a large share of new jobs in the projection period, as the aging population continues to drive demand for health care services.
Of the 30 fastest growing occupations in the 2016–26 period, in terms of employment, four had a median annual wage of over $100,000 in 2016. All four of those occupations—physician assistants; nurse practitioners; software developers, applications; and mathematicians—are also among the top 10 fastest growing occupations.
These data are from the BLS Employment Projections and Occupational Employment Statistics programs.
Projected 2016–26 employment change and median annual wages in 2016 for fastest growing occupations:
|Occupation||Projected percent change
in employment, 2016–26
wage in 2016
employment in 2026
|Solar photovoltaic installers||105.3%||$39,240||23,200|
|Wind turbine service technicians||96.1||$52,260||11,300|
|Home health aides||46.7||$22,600||1,337,000|
|Personal care aides||37.4||$21,920||2,770,100|
|Physical therapist assistants||30.8||$56,610||115,500|
|Software developers, applications||30.5||$100,080||1,084,600|
|Physical therapist aides||29.1||$25,680||67,100|
|Occupational therapy assistants||28.9||$59,010||50,700|
|Information security analysts||28.4||$92,600||128,500|
|Operations research analysts||27.4||$79,200||145,300|
|Forest fire inspectors and prevention specialists||26.6||$36,230||2,200|
|Health specialties teachers, postsecondary||25.9||$99,360||294,000|
|Derrick operators, oil and gas||25.7||$48,130||13,900|
|Occupational therapy aides||24.7||$28,330||9,300|
|Roustabouts, oil and gas||24.5||$37,340||62,300|
|Rotary drill operators, oil and gas||24.2||$54,430||20,800|
|Nursing instructors and teachers, postsecondary||24.0||$69,130||84,200|
|Service unit operators, oil, gas, and mining||23.4||$48,610||51,100|
|Diagnostic medical sonographers||23.2||$69,650||82|
Wage data cover non-farm wage and salary workers and do not cover the self-employed, owners and partners in unincorporated firms, or household workers.
In It’s ‘Projections overview and highlights, 2016–26’, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, states that changing demographics in the population will have far-reaching effects on the labor force, the economy, and employment over the 2016–26 decade. The overall labor force participation rate is projected to decline as older workers leave the labor force, constraining economic growth. The aging baby-boomer segment of the population will drive demand for healthcare services and related occupations.
Continued slow labor force growth; moderate economic growth, which is faster than the previous decade; and continued increases in healthcare employment are a few highlights from the most recent projections prepared by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). These projections provide a comprehensive view of expected changes in the U.S. economy over the 2016–26 decade. The projections comprise nearly every facet of the economy, from population and labor force to gross domestic product (GDP) and productivity.
Some highlights of the ‘Projections overview and highlights, 2016–26’, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, include the following:
The labor force is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 0.6 percent, from 159.2 million people in 2016 to 169.7 million people in 2026—an increase of about 10.5 million people.
GDP is projected to grow 2.0 percent annually over the projections decade, about 1.5 times the rate of the previous decade, 2006–16, when GDP grew 1.4 percent annually.
Real output in the service-providing sectors is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.2 percent from 2016 to 2026, which is faster than the 1.0-percent growth experienced from 2006 to 2016.
Healthcare and related occupations account for 17 of the 30 fastest growing occupations from 2016 to 2026. Other occupations in the top 30 are generally energy-related occupations or employed in computer and information industries.
An aging and slowly growing population results in slow growth for the labor force. Expectations for the overall economy are higher for the 2016–26 decade than they were the previous 10 years. However, economic growth levels are not expected to reach those of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.
Most job growth between 2016 and 2026 will come from service-providing sectors, and by 2026, 81 percent of jobs are projected to be in these sectors. In addition, growth of real output from service-providing sectors will be slightly faster than that of the overall economy. Those occupations related to healthcare will have the fastest employment growth from 2016 to 2026. Rapid industry growth, because of the needs of the aging baby-boom generation and of an increasing number of people with chronic conditions, will cause growth in healthcare occupations to be much faster than the average for all occupations, the Department Of Labor, concludes.
BLS develops macroeconomic projections with a model licensed from Macroeconomic Advisers (MA), LLC. Energy prices come from the Energy Information Agency (EIA), and BLS determines other critical variables and supplies them to the MA model exogenously. The MA model then projects economic aggregates, including total employment, output, productivity, prices, interest rates, and many other variables for the U.S. economy. These variables, most importantly nonfarm payroll employment, labor productivity, and GDP, serve as constraints for the industry output and employment projections.
In a full-employment economy, the unemployment rate is equal to the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). NAIRU is one of the critical values BLS supplies to the MA model. During the 2007–09 recession, unemployment was substantially higher than the NAIRU. Since the end of the recession, unemployment has fallen from 9.6 percent in 2010 to 4.9 percent in 2016 as the economy nears full employment. BLS assumes a NAIRU of 4.7 percent in 2026 and supplies it to the model for 2026. Since full employment is assumed, the model is solved so that unemployment equals the 4.7-percent NAIRU value.6
BLS weighs information from a number of sources, including Blue Chip Economic Indicators, the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Federal Reserve, the Office of Management and Budget, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture as well as the model licensed from Macroeconomic Advisors, to determine the NAIRU assumption.