U.S. Housing Starts 1.17M vs 1.27M Expected In July

by Ike Obudulu Posted on August 16th, 2018

Washington D.C., USA: New residential construction rebounded by much less than expected in the month of July, the Commerce Department revealed in a report released on Thursday.

The report said housing starts rose by 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.168 million in July after plunging by 12.9 percent to a revised rate of 1.158 million in June.

Economists had expected housing starts to soar by 7.4 percent to an annual rate of 1.270 million from the 1.173 million originally reported for the previous month.

Single-family housing starts climbed by 0.9 percent in July after tumbling by 9.0 percent in June, while multi-family starts increased by 0.7 percent after plummeting by 22.3 percent.

The Commerce Department also said building permits advanced by 1.5 percent to an annual rate of 1.311 million in July after dipping by 0.7 percent to a revised rate of 1.292 million in June.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, had been expected to jump by 2.9 percent to a rate of 1.310 million from the 1.273 million originally reported for the previous month.

While single-family building permits surged up by 1.9 percent in July after climbing by 1.2 percent in June, multi-family permits rose by 0.7 percent after slumping by 4.1 percent.

On Wednesday, the National Association of Home Builders released a separate report showing a modest deterioration in homebuilder confidence in the month of August due in part to growing affordability concerns.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index edged down to 67 in August from 68 in June, matching economist estimates.

Building Permits

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,311,000. This is 1.5 percent (±1.3 percent) above the revised June rate of 1,292,000 and is 4.2 percent (±1.7 percent) above the July 2017 rate of 1,258,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 869,000; this is 1.9 percent (±1.4 percent) above the revised June figure of 853,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 410,000 in July.

Housing Starts

Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,168,000. This is 0.9 percent (±11.5 percent)* above the revised June estimate of 1,158,000, but is 1.4 percent (±11.7 percent)* below the July 2017 rate of 1,185,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 862,000; this is 0.9 percent (±9.6 percent)* above the revised June figure of 854,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 303,000.

Housing Completions

Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,188,000. This is 1.7 percent (±10.9 percent)* below the revised June estimate of 1,209,000 and is 0.8 percent (±11.3 percent)* below the July 2017 rate of 1,197,000. Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 814,000; this is 5.2 percent (±7.8 percent)* below the revised June rate of 859,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 371,000.

Why Markets Care About Building Permits

Building Permits (Also Called Residential Building Permits) measures annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month. It is released monthly, about seventeen days after the month ends.

The purpose of the Building Permits Survey (BPS) is to provide national, state, and local statistics on the number and valuation of new privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in the United States. The United States Code, Title 13, authorizes this survey and provides for voluntary responses.

The statistics from the Building Permits Survey are based on reports that are submitted by local building permit officials in response to a voluntary mail survey.

Building permits data are collected from individual permit offices, most of which are municipalities and local governments. From local area data, estimates are tabulated for counties, states, metropolitan areas, Census Divisions, Census Regions, and the United States. Data are also collected for Puerto Rico and U.S. territories, although these areas are excluded from the national estimates.

The Building Permits Survey covers all “permit-issuing places,” which are jurisdictions that issue building or zoning permits. Zoning permits are used only for areas that do not require building permits but require zoning permits. Areas for which no authorization is required to construct a new privately-owned housing unit are not included in the survey.

The list of jurisdictions from which permits data are collected is updated monthly to reflect ongoing changes in permit coverage reported to the Census Bureau by local governments. These updates are reflected in the data for individual permit-issuing places, but all other estimates include only areas that had permit coverage at the time the current universe was established. This provides data that can be compared over time without the need to account for changes in permit coverage.

While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12).

The usual effect is that ‘Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for the dollar and vice versa.

Building Permits is an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building.

Why Markets Care About Housing Starts

Housing Starts measures annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month. It is released monthly, about seventeen days after the month ends.

The compilation of the housing starts series is a multistage process.

First, a monthly estimate of the number of housing units for which building permits have been issued in all permit-issuing places is obtained from the Census Bureau’s Building Permits Survey.

Second, for each permit selected from the permit-issuing places, an inquiry is made of the owner or the builder to determine in which month and year the unit(s) covered by the permit was (were) started. In case the units authorized by permits in a particular month are not started by the end of that month, follow-ups are made in successive months to find out when the units were actually started.

Ratios are calculated (by type of structure) of the number of units authorized by permits, based on the Building Permits Survey, to the number of units authorized by permits based on estimates generated from the  permit offices. These ratios are then applied to the appropriate estimate of the number of units started, based on the permit offices, in the corresponding months or groups of months to provide ratio adjusted estimates of the number of units started for each month or group of months.

The rates are calculated for single-family structures for each of the four Census Regions and for structures with two units or more for each of the four Regions.

Adjustments are made to account for those units started prior to permit authorization and for late reports. These adjustments are based on historical patterns of pre-permit starts and late data. No adjustment is made for units in permit areas built without a permit.

While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Housing Starts data is slightly overshadowed by Building Permits because they are highly correlated and a permit must be issued before a house can begin construction

The usual effect is that ‘Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good f or the dollar and vice versa.

Housing Starts is a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder.

Author

Ike Obudulu

Ike Obudulu

Versatile Certified Fraud Examiner, Chartered Accountant, Certified Internal Auditor with an MBA in Finance And Investments who has both worked for and consulted with some of the world's largest companies on main street and wall street in over 20 countries, Ike brings his extensive reporting and investigations experience to bear on his role as Chief Editor.
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