Washington D.C., U.S. new home construction rose less than expected in September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,201,000, (vs 1.22 millions expected) the Commerce Department data released on Wednesday show.
This is 5.3 percent (±11.3 percent)* below the revised August estimate of 1,268,000, but is 3.7 percent (±12.1 percent) above the September 2017 rate of 1,158,000.
Single‐family housing starts in September were at a rate of 871,000; this is 0.9 percent (±8.9 percent)* below the revised August figure of 879,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 324,000.
U.S. homebuilding dropped more than expected in September as construction activity in the South fell by the most in nearly three years, likely held down by Hurricane Florence.
Starts in the South, which accounts for the bulk of homebuilding, tumbled 13.7 percent last month. That was the biggest decline since October 2015. Hurricane Florence slammed North and South Carolina in mid-September and flooding from the storm probably depressed homebuilding last month.
Building permits fell 0.6 percent to a rate of 1.241 million units in September. That was the second straight monthly decline in permits and suggested homebuilding is likely to remain tepid.
The housing market has been a weak spot in a robust economy. Economists blame the sluggishness on rising mortgage rates, which have combined with higher house prices to make home purchasing unaffordable for some first-time buyers.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 19 basis points to 4.90 percent last week, the highest level since mid-April 2011, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. The mortgage rate has risen about 91 basis points this year.
A survey on Tuesday showed confidence among single-family homebuilders rose in October, but builders said “housing affordability has become a challenge due to ongoing price and interest rate increases.”
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,241,000. This is 0.6 percent (±1.2 percent)* below the revised August rate of 1,249,000 and is 1.0 percent (±1.2 percent) below the September 2017 rate of 1,254,000. Single‐family authorizations in September were at a rate of 851,000; this is 2.9 percent (±1.2 percent) above the revised August figure of 827,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 351,000 in September.
Privately‐owned housing completions in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,162,000. This is 4.1 percent (±11.3 percent)* below the revised August estimate of 1,212,000, but is 7.0 percent (±12.9 percent) above the September 2017 rate of 1,086,000. Single‐family housing completions in September were at a rate of 844,000; this is 8.7 percent (±8.4 percent) below the revised August rate of 924,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 312,000.
Why Markets Care About Building Permits
Building Permits (Also Called Residential Building Permits) measures annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month. It is released monthly, about seventeen days after the month ends.
The purpose of the Building Permits Survey (BPS) is to provide national, state, and local statistics on the number and valuation of new privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in the United States. The United States Code, Title 13, authorizes this survey and provides for voluntary responses.
The statistics from the Building Permits Survey are based on reports that are submitted by local building permit officials in response to a voluntary mail survey.
Building permits data are collected from individual permit offices, most of which are municipalities and local governments. From local area data, estimates are tabulated for counties, states, metropolitan areas, Census Divisions, Census Regions, and the United States. Data are also collected for Puerto Rico and U.S. territories, although these areas are excluded from the national estimates.
The Building Permits Survey covers all “permit-issuing places,” which are jurisdictions that issue building or zoning permits. Zoning permits are used only for areas that do not require building permits but require zoning permits. Areas for which no authorization is required to construct a new privately-owned housing unit are not included in the survey.
The list of jurisdictions from which permits data are collected is updated monthly to reflect ongoing changes in permit coverage reported to the Census Bureau by local governments. These updates are reflected in the data for individual permit-issuing places, but all other estimates include only areas that had permit coverage at the time the current universe was established. This provides data that can be compared over time without the need to account for changes in permit coverage.
While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12).
The usual effect is that ‘Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for the dollar and vice versa.
Building Permits is an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building.
Why Markets Care About Housing Starts
Housing Starts measures annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month. It is released monthly, about seventeen days after the month ends.
The compilation of the housing starts series is a multistage process.
First, a monthly estimate of the number of housing units for which building permits have been issued in all permit-issuing places is obtained from the Census Bureau’s Building Permits Survey.
Second, for each permit selected from the permit-issuing places, an inquiry is made of the owner or the builder to determine in which month and year the unit(s) covered by the permit was (were) started. In case the units authorized by permits in a particular month are not started by the end of that month, follow-ups are made in successive months to find out when the units were actually started.
Ratios are calculated (by type of structure) of the number of units authorized by permits, based on the Building Permits Survey, to the number of units authorized by permits based on estimates generated from the permit offices. These ratios are then applied to the appropriate estimate of the number of units started, based on the permit offices, in the corresponding months or groups of months to provide ratio adjusted estimates of the number of units started for each month or group of months.
The rates are calculated for single-family structures for each of the four Census Regions and for structures with two units or more for each of the four Regions.
Adjustments are made to account for those units started prior to permit authorization and for late reports. These adjustments are based on historical patterns of pre-permit starts and late data. No adjustment is made for units in permit areas built without a permit.
While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Housing Starts data is slightly overshadowed by Building Permits because they are highly correlated and a permit must be issued before a house can begin construction
The usual effect is that ‘Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good f or the dollar and vice versa.
Housing Starts is a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder.