Washington, D.C., USA :In the week ending October 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 207,000, the Department of Labor data released today show.
The 4-week moving average was 209,500, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 207,000.
The consensus forecast from economists had expected total new claims of 207,000 in the past week.
Seasonally adjusted initial claims data
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending September 29, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 29 was 1,660,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 6,000 from 1,650,000 to 1,656,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,656,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since August 18, 1973 when it was 1,646,750. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,500 from 1,664,500 to 1,666,000.
Unadjusted initial claims data
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 199,166 in the week ending October 6, an increase of 33,613 (or 20.3 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 27,385 (or 16.5 percent) from the previous week. There were 229,241 initial claims in the comparable week in 2017.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent during the week ending September 29, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 1,376,408, a decrease of 21,182 (or -1.5 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 24,839 (or -1.8 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 1.1 percent and the volume was 1,582,806.
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending September 22 was 1,421,661, a decrease of 13,471 from the previous week. There were 1,652,447 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2017.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending September 22.
Initial claims for UI benefits filed by former Federal civilian employees totaled 633 in the week ending September 29, an increase of 27 from the prior week. There were 566 initial claims filed by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 4 from the preceding week.
There were 6,930 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending September 22, a decrease of 402 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 7,188, a decrease of 315 from the prior week.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending September 22 were in New Jersey (1.9), Alaska (1.8), California (1.7), Connecticut (1.6), Puerto Rico (1.6), Pennsylvania (1.5), the District of Columbia (1.3), Massachusetts (1.3), Nevada (1.3), and the Virgin Islands (1.3).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 29 were in South Carolina (+1,040), Ohio (+442), Illinois (+412), Minnesota (+213), and Iowa (+148), while the largest decreases were in North Carolina (-4,796), Kentucky (-4,625), California (-960), New York (-841), and Texas (-547).
Why Markets Care About Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims – also called Jobless Claims or Initial Claims – measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes.
The usual effect is that if ‘Actual’ is less than ‘Forecast’, it is good for the dollar and vice versa.
Markets care because although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health since consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy.
An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claimant requests a determination of basic eligibility for the UI program. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place and these result in activity counts including the count of initial claims. The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading economic indicator because it is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country. However, these are weekly administrative data which are difficult to seasonally adjust, making the series subject to some volatility.
Continued Weeks Claimed
A person who has already filed an initial claim and who has experienced a week of unemployment then files a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment. Continued claims are also referred to as insured unemployment. The count of U.S. continued weeks claimed is also a good indicator of labor market conditions.
Continued claims reflect the current number of insured unemployed workers filing for UI benefits in the nation. While continued claims are not a leading indicator (they roughly coincide with economic cycles at their peaks and lag at cycle troughs), they provide confirming evidence of the direction of the U.S. economy
Seasonal Adjustments and Annual Revisions
Over the course of a year, the weekly changes in the levels of initial claims and continued claims undergo regularly occurring fluctuations. These fluctuations may result from seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, the opening and closing of schools, or other similar events. Because these seasonal events follow a more or less regular pattern each year, their influence on the level of a series can be tempered by adjusting for regular seasonal variation. These adjustments make trend and cycle developments easier to spot. At the beginning of each calendar year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides the Employment and Training Administration (ETA) with a set of seasonal factors to apply to the unadjusted data during that year. Concurrent with the implementation and release of the new seasonal factors, ETA incorporates revisions to the UI claims historical series caused by updates to the unadjusted data.