US Weekly Jobless Claims Match Expectations At 214k

by Ike Obudulu Posted on November 8th, 2018

Washington, D.C., USA  : First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits showed a slight decrease in the week ended November 3rd, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday.

The report said initial jobless claims edged down to 214,000 (matching economists expectations), a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 215,000.

The Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average also slipped to 213,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s revised average of 214,000.

Continuing claims, a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance, also fell by 8,000 to 1.623 million in the week ended October 27th.

With the continued decrease, continuing claims fell to their lowest level since hitting 1.603 million in July of 1973.

The four-week moving average of continuing claims also dropped to a 45-year low of 1,633,250, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 1,640,750.

Last Friday, the Labor Department released a separate report showing stronger than expected job growth in the month of October.

The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment surged up by 250,000 jobs in October after rising by a downwardly revised 118,000 jobs in September. Economists had expected an increase of about 190,000 jobs.

Meanwhile, the report said the unemployment rate in October was unchanged from the previous month at 3.7 percent, its lowest level since hitting 3.5 percent in December of 1969.

Average hourly employee earnings rose by $0.05 to $27.30 in October, reflecting a 3.1 percent increase compared to the same month a year ago.

The annual rate of hourly earnings growth accelerated from 2.8 percent in September, reaching the fastest pace since April of 2009.

Why Markets Care About Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims – also called  Jobless Claims or Initial Claims – measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes.

The usual effect is that if ‘Actual’ is less than ‘Forecast’, it is good for the dollar and vice versa.

Markets care because although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health since consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy.

Initial Claims

An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claimant requests a determination of basic eligibility for the UI program. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place and these result in activity counts including the count of initial claims. The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading economic indicator because it is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country. However, these are weekly administrative data which are difficult to seasonally adjust, making the series subject to some volatility.

Continued Weeks Claimed

A person who has already filed an initial claim and who has experienced a week of unemployment then files a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment. Continued claims are also referred to as insured unemployment. The count of U.S. continued weeks claimed is also a good indicator of labor market conditions.

Continued claims reflect the current number of insured unemployed workers filing for UI benefits in the nation. While continued claims are not a leading indicator (they roughly coincide with economic cycles at their peaks and lag at cycle troughs), they provide confirming evidence of the direction of the U.S. economy

Seasonal Adjustments and Annual Revisions

Over the course of a year, the weekly changes in the levels of initial claims and continued claims undergo regularly occurring fluctuations. These fluctuations may result from seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, the opening and closing of schools, or other similar events. Because these seasonal events follow a more or less regular pattern each year, their influence on the level of a series can be tempered by adjusting for regular seasonal variation. These adjustments make trend and cycle developments easier to spot. At the beginning of each calendar year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides the Employment and Training Administration (ETA) with a set of seasonal factors to apply to the unadjusted data during that year. Concurrent with the implementation and release of the new seasonal factors, ETA incorporates revisions to the UI claims historical series caused by updates to the unadjusted data.

Author

Ike Obudulu

Ike Obudulu

Versatile Certified Fraud Examiner, Chartered Accountant, Certified Internal Auditor with an MBA in Finance And Investments who has both worked for and consulted with some of the world's largest companies on main street and wall street in over 20 countries, Ike brings his extensive reporting and investigations experience to bear on his role as Chief Editor.
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